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Monday, February 18, 2019 9:28:53 AM EST

CPI Updated 13-Feb-19 09:19AM ET

Total CPI was unchanged ( consensus +0.1%) while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2%, as expected.

On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 1.6%, which is the smallest increase since June 2017. Core CPI was up 2.2%, which was the same increase as the 12-month periods ending in November and December.

A 3.1% decline in the energy index tamped down total CPI and helped offset price increases for shelter (+0.3%) and apparel (+1.1%) that pushed up core CPI.

The food index increased 0.2% in January.

January marked the fourth consecutive month that core CPI has increased 0.2%.

The key takeaway from the report is that core CPI is stable above the Fed's longer-run target. That could give it some leeway to remain patient for the time being, but at the same time, if the stock market keeps rallying and economic data improve, it could be a basis to consider raising rates again.
All Items0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%
Food and Beverages0.2%0.3%0.2%0.0%0.1%
Equivalent Rent0.3%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%
Motor Fuel-5.5%-5.8%-5.2%2.7%-1.2%
Medical Care0.2%0.3%0.4%0.2%0.2%
Educ and Commun0.2%0.1%-0.5%-0.1%0.2%
Special Indices