Total CPI was unchanged (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2%, as expected.
On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 1.6%, which is the smallest increase since June 2017. Core CPI was up 2.2%, which was the same increase as the 12-month periods ending in November and December.
A 3.1% decline in the energy index tamped down total CPI and helped offset price increases for shelter (+0.3%) and apparel (+1.1%) that pushed up core CPI.
The food index increased 0.2% in January.
January marked the fourth consecutive month that core CPI has increased 0.2%.
The key takeaway from the report is that core CPI is stable above the Fed's longer-run target. That could give it some leeway to remain patient for the time being, but at the same time, if the stock market keeps rallying and economic data improve, it could be a basis to consider raising rates again.| JAN | DEC | NOV | OCT | SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Food and Beverages | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Housing | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Equivalent Rent | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Apparel | 1.1% | 0.0% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Transportation | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.0% | 1.0% | -0.5% |
| Vehicles | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| Motor Fuel | -5.5% | -5.8% | -5.2% | 2.7% | -1.2% |
| Medical Care | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Educ and Commun | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Special Indices | |||||
| Core | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Energy | -3.1% | -2.6% | -2.8% | 2.1% | -1.0% |
| Services | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
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