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Monday, December 17, 2018 2:29:12 PM EST

Nonfarm Payrolls Updated 07-Dec-18 09:37AM ET
November nonfarm payroll growth was a little light of expectations, but key for the market was the recognition that average hourly earnings were up 0.2% month-over-month. The latter resulted in a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, which was unchanged for the 12-month period ending in October.

November nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 ( consensus 189,000). Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 170,000 per month.  October nonfarm payrolls revised to 237,000 from 250,000.  September nonfarm payrolls revised to 119,000 from 118,000.

November private sector payrolls increased by 161,000 ( consensus 185,000).  October private sector payrolls revised to 251,000 from 246,000 .  September private sector payrolls revised to 117,000 from 121,000.

November unemployment rate was 3.7% ( consensus 3.7%) versus 3.7% in October. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 20.8% of the unemployed versus 22.5% in October. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 7.6% versus 7.4% in October.

November average hourly earnings were up 0.2% ( consensus +0.3%), after increasing 0.2% in October.  Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.1%, unchanged from the 12 months ending in October.

The average workweek in September was 34.4 hours ( consensus 34.5) versus 34.5 hours in October. November manufacturing workweek unchanged at 40.8 hours. Factory overtime unchanged at 3.5 hours.

The labor force participation rate was 62.9% in November versus 62.9% in October.

The key takeaway from the report is that the wage acceleration the Federal Reserve has been bracing for was missing. That won't likely keep the Federal Reserve from raising the target range for the fed funds rate at its December FOMC meeting, yet it's the type of data point that could lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious-minded about raising rates after that.
Establishment Survey
Nonfarm Payrolls155K237K119K286K165K
Retail Trade18K-7K-27K9K2K
Temporary help8K17K13K11K10K
Average Workweek34.434.534.434.534.5
Production Workweek33.733.733.733.833.8
Factory Overtime4.
Aggregate Hours Index-0.2%0.5%-0.3%0.3%-0.2%
Avg Hourly Earnings0.2%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.3%
Household Survey
Household Survey
Civilian Unemp. Rate3.7%3.7%3.7%3.9%3.9%
Civilian Labor Force133K711K150K-469K105K
Civilian Employed233K600K420K-423K389K
Civilian Unemployed-100K111K-270K-46K-284K