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Thursday, February 21, 2019 2:58:12 AM EST





Nonfarm Payrolls
Briefing.com Updated 01-Feb-19 09:26AM ET
There is a lot to take in with the January employment, including annual benchmark revisions, the effect of the partial government shutdown on the results for the Household Survey, and a rising labor force participation rate that speaks well of the growing confidence in finding a job.

January nonfarm payrolls increased by 304,000 (Briefing.com consensus 160,000). December nonfarm payrolls revised to 222,000 from 312,000. November nonfarm payrolls revised to 196,000 from 176,000.

January private sector payrolls increased by 296,000 (Briefing.com consensus 160,000). December private sector payrolls revised to 206,000 from 301,000. November private sector payrolls revised to 200,000 from 173,000.

January unemployment rate was 4.0% (Briefing.com consensus 3.9%) versus 3.9% in December. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 19.3% of the unemployed versus 20.5% in December. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 8.1% versus 7.6% in December.

January average hourly earnings were up 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%), after increasing 0.4% in December. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.2%, versus 3.3% for the 12 months ending in December.

The average workweek in January was 34.5 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4), unchanged from December.  Manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours. Factory overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 3.5 hours.

The labor force participation rate was 63.2% in January versus 63.1% in December.

The key takeaway from the January report is that, even with revisions that reduced total job gains in November and December by 70,000, job gains have averaged a solid 241,000 per month over the last three months, offering some data-based justification to think this economic expansion has more room to run with consumer spending providing support.
 
JANDECNOVOCTSEP
Establishment Survey
Nonfarm Payrolls304K222K196K277K108K
Goods-Producing72K53K29K60K38K
Construction52K28K5K25K17K
Manufacturing13K20K27K29K18K
Service-Providing224K153K171K225K70K
Retail Trade21K-12K33K-10K-26K
Financial13K4K3K14K14K
Business30K29K34K55K53K
Temporary help1K8K1K14K14K
Education/Health55K67K29K37K25K
Leisure/Hospitality74K55K39K79K-24K
Government8K16K-4K-8K0K
Average Workweek34.534.534.434.534.5
Production Workweek33.733.733.733.733.7
Factory Overtime4.54.54.54.54.5
Aggregate Hours Index0.3%0.5%-0.2%0.3%0.0%
Avg Hourly Earnings0.1%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.3%
Household Survey
Household Survey
Civilian Unemp. Rate4.0%3.9%3.7%3.8%3.7%
Civilian Labor Force-11K419K127K639K253K
Civilian Employed-251K142K221K513K465K
Civilian Unemployed241K276K-94K126K-211K