The Advance Q4 GDP Report showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 2.9% (Briefing.com consensus 2.6%) following a 3.2% increase in the third quarter.
The GDP Price Deflator was up 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%) following a 4.4% increase in the third quarter.
The Q4 PCE Price Index was up 3.2% versus 4.3% in the third quarter. The core PCE Price Index increased 3.9% versus 4.7% in the third quarter.
Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.1% versus 2.3% in the third quarter, and added 1.42 percentage points to growth. Spending on goods was up 1.1%, versus down 0.4% in the third quarter, while spending on services was up 2.6% versus 3.7% in the third quarter.
Gross private domestic investment increased 1.4% after declining 9.6% in the third quarter, and added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth.
Exports decreased 1.3% versus increasing 14.6% in the third quarter. Imports decreased 4.6% after declining 7.3% in the third quarter. Net exports added 0.56 percentage points to GDP growth.
Government spending increased 3.7% after increasing 3.7% in the third quarter, and added 0.64 percentage points to GDP growth.
The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in the third quarter.
Real GDP increased 2.1% in 2022 versus 5.9% in 2021. The PCE Price Index increased 6.2% in 2022 while the core PCE Price Index increased 5.0%.
The key takeaway from the report is that the economy was a long way from a recession in the fourth quarter, although consumer spending (and inflation) did moderate some.| Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 2.9% | 3.2% | -0.6% | -1.6% | 7.0% |
| Inventories (change) | $129.9B | $38.7B | $110.2B | $214.5B | $197.6B |
| Final Sales | 1.4% | 4.5% | 1.3% | -1.8% | 1.9% |
| PCE | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.1% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 0.7% | 6.2% | 0.1% | 7.9% | 1.1% |
| Structures | 0.4% | -3.6% | -12.7% | -4.3% | -12.7% |
| Equipment | -3.7% | 10.6% | -2.0% | 11.4% | 1.6% |
| Intellectual Property | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% |
| Residential Inv. | -26.7% | -27.1% | -17.8% | -3.1% | -1.1% |
| Net Exports | -$1232.4B | -$1268.8B | -$1430.5B | -$1488.7B | -$1297.6B |
| Export | -1.3% | 14.6% | 13.8% | -4.6% | 23.5% |
| Imports | -4.6% | -7.3% | 2.2% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| Government | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.6% | -2.3% | -1.0% |
| GDP Price Index | 3.5% | 4.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% |
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