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Thursday, January 26, 2023 4:35:28 PM EST





GDP-Adv.
Briefing.com Updated 26-Jan-23 09:48AM ET

The Advance Q4 GDP Report showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 2.9% (Briefing.com consensus 2.6%) following a 3.2% increase in the third quarter.

The GDP Price Deflator was up 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%) following a 4.4% increase in the third quarter.

The Q4 PCE Price Index was up 3.2% versus 4.3% in the third quarter. The core PCE Price Index increased 3.9% versus 4.7% in the third quarter.

Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.1% versus 2.3% in the third quarter, and added 1.42 percentage points to growth. Spending on goods was up 1.1%, versus down 0.4% in the third quarter, while spending on services was up 2.6% versus 3.7% in the third quarter.

Gross private domestic investment increased 1.4% after declining 9.6% in the third quarter, and added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth.

Exports decreased 1.3% versus increasing 14.6% in the third quarter. Imports decreased 4.6% after declining 7.3% in the third quarter. Net exports added 0.56 percentage points to GDP growth.

Government spending increased 3.7% after increasing 3.7% in the third quarter, and added 0.64 percentage points to GDP growth.

The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in the third quarter.

Real GDP increased 2.1% in 2022 versus 5.9% in 2021. The PCE Price Index increased 6.2% in 2022 while the core PCE Price Index increased 5.0%.

The key takeaway from the report is that the economy was a long way from a recession in the fourth quarter, although consumer spending (and inflation) did moderate some.
 
Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4
GDP2.9%3.2%-0.6%-1.6%7.0%
Inventories (change)$129.9B$38.7B$110.2B$214.5B$197.6B
Final Sales1.4%4.5%1.3%-1.8%1.9%
PCE2.1%2.3%2.0%1.3%3.1%
Nonresidential Inv.0.7%6.2%0.1%7.9%1.1%
Structures0.4%-3.6%-12.7%-4.3%-12.7%
Equipment-3.7%10.6%-2.0%11.4%1.6%
Intellectual Property5.3%6.8%8.9%10.8%8.1%
Residential Inv.-26.7%-27.1%-17.8%-3.1%-1.1%
Net Exports-$1232.4B-$1268.8B-$1430.5B-$1488.7B-$1297.6B
Export-1.3%14.6%13.8%-4.6%23.5%
Imports-4.6%-7.3%2.2%18.4%18.6%
Government3.7%3.7%-1.6%-2.3%-1.0%
GDP Price Index3.5%4.4%9.0%8.3%6.8%