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Company profile

Cisco Systems, Inc., is engaged in designing and selling a range of technologies across networking, security, collaboration, applications and the cloud. It operates through three geographic segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. Its product and technologies include infrastructure platforms; applications; security and other products. Infrastructure Platforms consists of its core networking technologies of switching, routing, data center products and wireless that are designed to work together to deliver networking capabilities and transport and store data. Application product category consists primarily of software-related offerings that utilize the core networking and data center platforms to provide their functions. Security product category primarily includes unified threat management products, threat security products and Web security products. Its subsidiary, ThousandEyes, Inc., offers Internet and cloud intelligence platform.

Closing Price
$45.43
Day's Change
0.28 (0.62%)
Bid
--
Ask
--
B/A Size
--
Day's High
45.65
Day's Low
44.88
Volume
(Heavy Day)
Volume:
30,271,669

10-day average volume:
20,538,554
30,271,669

Charting a decisive 2021 breakout: U.S. benchmarks clear 20-day volatility bands

12:54 pm ET January 12, 2021 (MarketWatch)
Print

By Michael Ashbaugh, MarketWatch

Focus: Rising interest rates and energy prices signal reflation trade, 10-year yield and crude oil take flight, TNX, USO, AMD, SEDG, CSCO

Technically speaking, the major U.S. benchmarks have asserted a near-term holding pattern, pulling in modestly from all-time highs.

Still, the slight downturn punctuates previously aggressive January breakouts amid a still comfortably bullish bigger-picture backdrop.

Before detailing the U.S. markets' wider view, the S&P 500's hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.

As illustrated, the S&P is digesting its latest break to all-time highs. The flattish initial pullback signals still muted selling pressure near record territory.

Tactically, initial support (3,783) is followed by an inflection point, circa 3,764.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has also sustained its January breakout, notching three straight closes atop the 31,000 mark.

The prevailing bull flag -- the tight four-session range, near record highs -- is a bullish continuation pattern.

Slightly more broadly, the breakout punctuates a successful test of major support (29,964) on the year's first session.

Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq Composite has registered three straight closes atop the 13,000 mark.

To reiterate, the breakout point (12,973) marks a notable floor, and is followed by the Nasdaq's former projected target (12,920).

Delving deeper, the prevailing upturn punctuates a successful first-day-of-the year test of major support (12,607).

Widening the view to six months adds perspective.

On this wider view, the Nasdaq is digesting its January break to record territory. Recall that the initial spike marked a 1.8% breakout, confirming the Nasdaq's primary uptrend.

Tactically, the breakout point (12,973) pivots to support.

Delving deeper, the prevailing upturn originates from the 20-day moving average -- a widely-tracked near-term trending indicator -- and the former breakout point (12,607).

Looking elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has sustained a more decisive break to record highs.

Consider that Monday's modest downturn snapped a stretch of three straight closes atop the 20-day Bollinger bands (https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=DJIA&x=0&y=0&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F8%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=20&uf=8&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11) to conclude a statistically unusual two standard deviation breakout.

As always, consecutive closes atop the Bollinger bands signal a tension between time horizons.

For the near-term, the index is extended -- and due to consolidate -- following a break outside the range encompassing two standard deviations of its trailing 20-day price volatility.

But more importantly, the decisive upside spike signals extreme bullish momentum, a backdrop likely to precede longer-term upside follow-through.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has also taken flight.

Its January breakout has encompassed two straight closes atop the 20-day volatility bands (https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=%24SPX&x=0&y=0&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F8%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=20&uf=8&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11) amid an unusually strong January breakout.

The bigger picture

Collectively, the major U.S. benchmarks are off to a bullish 2021 start.

On a headline basis, each big three U.S. benchmark has knifed to all-time highs -- previously uncharted territory -- rising from a successful early-January test of the 20-day moving average.

As always, the 20-day moving average is a widely-tracked near-term trending indicator.

Moreover, the subsequent rally from the 20-day moving average has been fueled by statistically unusual bullish momentum. Each big three benchmark has staged a two standard deviation breakout.

(On a granular note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched three straight closes atop the 20-day volatility bands, the S&P 500 registered two straight closes atop the 20-day bands, and the Nasdaq Composite managed a less reliable, but still bullish, lone close atop the bands.)

Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is digesting an unusually strong January spike.

Recall that its nearly 3.5% breakout confirms the primary uptrend.

More immediately, the prevailing pullback has been flat, fueled by decreased volume, likely laying the groundwork for longer-term follow-through.

Similarly, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) has taken flight, knifing to record highs.

Combined, the decisive small- and mid-cap breakouts are consistent with a bullish rotational market backdrop.

Looking elsewhere, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 (SPY) has broken out less decisively, rising about 1.2% atop the 2020 peak.

Still, the breakout is nominally respectable, and sufficient to confirm the primary uptrend.

Placing a finer point on the S&P 500, the index has sustained its latest break to all-time highs.

To reiterate, initial support (3,783) is followed by an inflection point, circa 3,764.

Delving deeper, the 3,723-to-3,726 area marks the S&P's first significant floor.

Widening to the six-month view, the S&P 500 has knifed to what will likely mark a higher plateau, atop the December peak. The prevailing upturn originates from the 20-day moving average.

Against this backdrop, the prevailing breakout has encompassed consecutive closes atop the 20-day Bollinger bands (https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=%24SPX&x=0&y=0&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F8%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=20&uf=8&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11), signaling statistically unusual bullish momentum.

Though still near-term extended -- and a consolidation phase remains underway -- the S&P 500's intermediate-term outlook remains comfortably bullish.

Also see: Charting a bull-trend whipsaw, S&P 500 absorbs pullback from record highs (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/charting-a-bull-trend-whipsaw-sp-500-absorbs-pullback-from-record-highs-2021-01-05-121035539).

Tuesday's Watch List

The charts below detail names that are technically well positioned. These are radar screen names -- sectors or stocks poised to move in the near term. For the original comments on the stocks below, see The Technical Indicator Library (http://www.marketwatch.com/premium-newsletters/archive/technical-indicator).

Drilling down further, the 10-year Treasury note yield has taken flight to start 2021, staging a likely consequential technical breakout.

In the process, the yield has extended its spike atop the marquee 1.00% mark

Tactically, the breakout confirms the yield's late-2020 uptrend, detailed previously (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/charting-a-successful-technical-test-sp-500-nails-the-breakout-point-2020-12-03). The upturn punctuates an orderly December range, as well as a bullish triangle hinged to the late-November low.

More broadly, the upturn punctuates a massive double bottom, defined by the April and August lows. (See the one-year chart (https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=XX%3ATNX&x=56&y=15&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F9%2F2020&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=50%2C+200&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11).) The rally above the former range top (0.97) has indeed produced swift upside follow-through.

On further strength, the March peak (1.27) remains a potential upside target, and is closely followed by the 2016 low (1.34). (Also see the Nov. 9 review (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bullish-momentum-accelerates-sp-500-extends-to-uncharted-territory-2020-11-09) and Dec. 3 review (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/charting-a-successful-technical-test-sp-500-nails-the-breakout-point-2020-12-03).)

Looking elsewhere, the United States Oil Fund (USO) has also staged a January breakout. The fund tracks daily changes in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil.

The shares initially spiked about two months ago, gapping atop trendline resistance amid optimism that vaccine progress will promote global economic growth. The subsequent grinding-higher follow-through places the shares at eight-month highs.

Tactically, near-term support (33.50) is followed by the former breakout point (31.00) an area toward which the 50-day moving average is rising. The 50-day has marked a bull-bear inflection point, and a sustained posture higher signals a bullish bias.

More broadly, rising oil prices and interest rates (yields) would conventionally present a broad-market headwind. But against the prevailing backdrop, the resurgence more likely signals a reflation trade, an expected return toward pre-virus economic conditions.

Initially profiled July 23, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) has returned 57.4% and remains well positioned.

As illustrated, the shares have rallied to the range top, rising to challenge all-time highs. (Monday's close (97.25) marked a record close, by a narrow 13-cent margin.)

The upturn punctuates a relatively tight six-week range, laying the groundwork for a potentially decisive breakout. A near-term target projects to the 104 area on follow-through.

2021-01-12 17:54:00 GMT MW Charting a decisive 2021 breakout: U.S. -2-

More broadly, recall that the late-2020 range is hinged to massive July breakout. (See the one-year chart (https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=AMD&x=47&y=18&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F12%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=50%2C+200&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11).) The prevailing rally attempt is intact barring a violation of the range bottom (88.70).

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is a large-cap name setting up well for the near-term. (Yield = 3.3%.)

Technically, the shares have rallied to challenge four-month highs amid a January upturn. A near-term target projects to the 47 area on follow-through.

Conversely, notable support, circa 43.70, closely matches the August gap. A sustained posture higher signals a bullish bias.

Also notice the pending golden cross -- or bullish 50-day/200-day moving average crossover -- signaling that the intermediate-term uptrend has overtaken the longer-term trend.

Finally, SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) is a well positioned Israel-based large-cap name.

Earlier this month, the shares knifed to record highs, rising amid a volume spike after the Georgia runoff Senate elections.

The ensuing pullback has been orderly, fueled by decreased volume, placing the shares near the breakout point (335.50) and 7.1% under the January peak.

Still well positioned

The table below includes names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the original comments, see The Technical Indicator Library. (http://www.marketwatch.com/premium-newsletters/archive/technical-indicator)

-Michael Ashbaugh; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

Company                                            Symbol* (Click symbol for chart.)  Date Profiled 
Chegg, Inc.                                        CHGG                               Jan. 11 
Ambarella, Inc.                                    AMBA                               Jan. 11 
Macy's, Inc.                                       M                                  Jan. 11 
Nexstar Media Group, Inc.                          NXST                               Jan. 11 
iShares Transportation Average ETF                 IYT                                Jan. 11 
Energy Select Sector SPDR                          XLE                                Jan. 8 
Teledoc Health, Inc.                               TDOC                               Jan. 8 
Dollar Tree, Inc.                                  DLTR                               Jan. 8 
Skyworks Solutions, Inc.                           SWKS                               Jan. 7 
DexCom, Inc.                                       DXCM                               Jan. 7 
Financial Select Sector SPDR                       XLF                                Jan. 7 
Devon Energy Corp.                                 DVN                                Jan. 6 
Alcoa Corp.                                        AA                                 Jan. 6 
FireEye, Inc.                                      FEYE                               Jan. 5 
Check Point Software Technologies                  CHKP                               Jan. 4 
Synaptics, Inc.                                    SYNA                               Jan. 4 
Ceridian HCM Holding, Inc.                         CDAY                               Jan. 4 
Lumentum Holdings, Inc.                            LITE                               Dec. 23 
Sunrun, Inc.                                       RUN                                Dec. 23 
ShockWave Medical, Inc.                            SWAV                               Dec. 23 
JPMorgan Chase & Co.                               JPM                                Dec. 22 
Coupa Software, Inc.                               COUP                               Dec. 22 
PagSeguro Digital Ltd.                             PAGS                               Dec. 22 
Ballard Power Systems, Inc.                        BLDP                               Dec. 21 
LivePerson, Inc.                                   LPSN                               Dec. 21 
United Therapeutics Corp.                          UTHR                               Dec. 21 
Shopify, Inc.                                      SHOP                               Dec. 18 
CyberArk Software Ltd.                             CYBR                               Dec. 18 
Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.                      APLS                               Dec. 18 
iShares Silver Trust                               SLV                                Dec. 17 
Calix, Inc.                                        CALX                               Dec. 17 
Elastic N.V.                                       ESTC                               Dec. 17 
Cerner Corp.                                       CERN                               Dec. 17 
Universal Health Services, Inc.                    UHS                                Dec. 16 
Tenet Healthcare Corp.                             THC                                Dec. 16 
Sunnova Energy International, Inc.                 NOVA                               Dec. 16 
Xilinx, Inc.                                       XLNX                               Dec. 15 
Netflix, Inc.                                      NFLX                               Dec. 15 
Toyota Motor Co.                                   TM                                 Dec. 15 
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.                              WSM                                Dec. 15 
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF                   IBB                                Dec. 15 
SDPR S&P Regional Banking ETF                      KRE                                Dec. 14 
Atlassian Corp.                                    TEAM                               Dec. 14 
Etsy, Inc.                                         ETSY                               Dec. 14 
Surface Oncology, Inc.                             SURF                               Dec. 14 
Autodesk, Inc.                                     ADSK                               Dec. 9 
Monster Beverage Corp.                             MNST                               Dec. 9 
Cimarex Energy Co.                                 XEC                                Dec. 9 
Plug Power, Inc.                                   PLUG                               Dec. 9 
F5 Networks, Inc.                                  FFIV                               Dec. 8 
Emerson Electric Co.                               EMR                                Dec. 8 
Zscaler, Inc.                                      ZS                                 Dec. 7 
Fortinet, Inc.                                     FTNT                               Dec. 7 
Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.                 KLIC                               Dec. 7 
Honeywell International, Inc.                      HON                                Dec. 7 
Dillard's, Inc.                                    DDS                                Dec. 4 
Caleres, Inc.                                      CAL                                Dec. 4 
Spotify Technology S.A.                            SPOT                               Dec. 3 
Align Technology, Inc.                             ALGN                               Dec. 3 
Valero Energy Corp.                                VLO                                Dec. 3 
Analog Devices, Inc.                               ADI                                Dec. 2 
Cirrus Logic, Inc.                                 CRUS                               Dec. 1 
Sonos, Inc.                                        SONO                               Dec. 1 
Dollar Tree, Inc.                                  DLTR                               Dec. 1 
Nuance Communications, Inc.                        NUAN                               Nov. 30 
Northern Trust Corp.                               NTRS                               Nov. 30 
American Airlines Group, Inc.                      AAL                                Nov. 30 
Microchip Technology, Inc.                         MCHP                               Nov. 24 
Zillow Group, Inc.                                 ZG                                 Nov. 23 
Yeti Holdings, Inc.                                YETI                               Nov. 23 
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.                           PANW                               Nov. 20 
Bank of America Corp.                              BAC                                Nov. 20 
Eaton Corp.                                        ETN                                Nov. 20 
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF  XOP                                Nov. 20 
MetLife, Inc.                                      MET                                Nov. 19 
Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc.                    HLT                                Nov. 19 
American Express Co.                               AXP                                Nov. 18 
Kohl's Corp.                                       KSS                                Nov. 18 
FleetCor Technologies                              FLT                                Nov. 18 
Applied Materials, Inc.                            AMAT                               Nov. 17 
Delta Air Lines, Inc.                              DAL                                Nov. 17 
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR                XLP                                Nov. 17 
Ross Stores, Inc.                                  ROST                               Nov. 16 
RingCentral, Inc.                                  RNG                                Nov. 13 
Regions Financial Corp.                            RF                                 Nov. 13 
iShares Europe ETF                                 IEV                                Nov. 13 
Flex, Inc.                                         FLEX                               Nov. 9 

2021-01-12 17:54:00 GMT MW Charting a decisive 2021 breakout: U.S. -3-

Snap, Inc.                                         SNAP                               Nov. 9 
Norfolk Southern Corp.                             NSC                                Nov. 9 
Communications Services Select Sector SPDR         XLC                                Nov. 5 
Health Care Select Sector SPDR                     XLV                                Nov. 5 
Alphabet, Inc.                                     GOOGL                              Nov. 5 
Uber Technologies, Inc.                            UBER                               Nov. 5 
Keysight Technologies, Inc.                        KEYS                               Nov. 4 
Harley-Davidson, Inc.                              HOG                                Nov. 4 
Garmin, Ltd.                                       GRMN                               Nov. 4 
Pinterest, Inc.                                    PINS                               Nov. 3 
Sony Corp.                                         SNE                                Nov. 3 
8x8, Inc.                                          EGHT                               Nov. 3 
Exact Sciences Corp.                               EXAS                               Nov. 2 
Universal Display Corp.                            OLED                               Nov. 2 
Dentsply Sirona, Inc.                              XRAY                               Oct. 27 
Maxim Integrated Products, Inc.                    MXIM                               Oct. 21 
The Travelers Companies, Inc.                      TRV                                Oct. 21 
Micron Technology, Inc.                            MU                                 Oct. 20 
Vulcan Materials Co.                               VMC                                Oct. 19 
ON Semiconductor Corp.                             ON                                 Oct. 16 
Ford Motor Co.                                     F                                  Oct. 15 
Texas Instruments, Inc.                            TXN                                Oct. 15 
First Solar, Inc.                                  FSLR                               Oct. 13 
Nevro Corp.                                        NVRO                               Oct. 12 
Teradyne, Inc.                                     TER                                Oct. 12 
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF                          XHB                                Oct. 9 
Shake Shack, Inc.                                  SHAK                               Oct. 9 
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF                               XBI                                Oct. 8 
Twilio, Inc.                                       TWLO                               Oct. 8 
Cloudflare, Inc.                                   NET                                Oct. 7 
Ceridian HCM Holding, Inc.                         CDAY                               Oct. 7 
RSailPoint Technology Holdings, Inc.               SAIL                               Oct. 1 
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.                    MLM                                Sept. 30 
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.                            ANF                                Sept. 29 
Zendesk, Inc.                                      ZEN                                Sept. 23 
Scientific Games Corp.                             SGMS                               Sept. 23 
Crocs, Inc.                                        CROX                               Sept. 14 
Five Below, Inc.                                   FIVE                               Sept. 10 
Eastman Chemical Co.                               EMN                                Sept. 10 
International Paper Co.                            IP                                 Sept. 3 
Anaplan, Inc.                                      PLAN                               Sept. 2 
Celanese Corp.                                     CE                                 Aug. 26 
Westlake Chemical Corp.                            WLK                                Aug. 25 
Deere & Co.                                        DE                                 Aug. 24 
Expedia Group, Inc.                                EXPE                               Aug. 24 
Johnson Controls International                     JCI                                Aug. 21 
Canadian Solar, Inc.                               CSIQ                               Aug. 20 
General Motors Co.                                 GM                                 Aug. 20 
Starbucks Corp.                                    SBUX                               Aug. 18 
Builders FirstSource, Inc.                         BLDR                               Aug. 18 
Steel Dynamics, Inc.                               STLD                               Aug. 17 
Brinker International, Inc.                        EAT                                Aug. 13 
Enphase Energy, Inc.                               ENPH                               Aug. 13 
Nucor Corp.                                        NUE                                Aug. 11 
Freeport McMoRan, Inc.                             FCX                                Aug. 10 
Natera, Inc.                                       NTRA                               Aug. 10 
Industrial Select Sector SPDR                      XLI                                Aug. 6 
Penn National Gaming, Inc.                         PENN                               July 30 
Procter & Gamble Co.                               PG                                 July 29 
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF                       XME                                July 28 
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF                       EWY                                July 28 
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.                       AMD                                July 23 
Materials Select Sector SPDR                       XLB                                July 20 
Caterpillar, Inc.                                  CAT                                July 20 
Roku, Inc.                                         ROKU                               July 16 
Cognizant Technology Solutions, Inc.               CTSH                               July 16 
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR          XLY                                July 13 
SunPower Corp.                                     SPWR                               July 13 
Walmart, Inc.                                      WMT                                July 8 
Danaher Corp.                                      DHR                                June 24 
Fiverr International, Ltd.                         FVRR                               June 19 
HubSpot, Inc.                                      HUBS                               June 8 
Square, Inc.                                       SQ                                 June 8 
SPDR S&P Retail ETF                                XRT                                June 3 
iShares MSCI Japan ETF                             EWJ                                May 29 
Synopsis, Inc.                                     SNPS                               May 27 
Agilent Technologies, Inc.                         A                                  May 15 
Qualcomm, Inc.                                     QCOM                               May 12 
ServiceNow, Inc.                                   NOW                                Apr. 27 
Five9, Inc.                                        FIVN                               Apr. 24 
Chewy, Inc.                                        CHWY                               Apr. 24 
Tesla, Inc.                                        TSLA                               Apr. 23 
VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF                   SMH                                Apr. 17 
Okta, Inc.                                         OKTA                               Apr. 16 
Target Corp.                                       TGT                                Apr. 16 
Invesco QQQ Trust                                  QQQ                                Apr. 14 
Apple, Inc.                                        AAPL                               Mar. 27 
Nvidia Corp.                                       NVDA                               Mar. 27 
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF                  EEM                                Mar. 19 
Microsoft Corp.                                    MSFT                               Feb. 22 
* Click each symbol for current chart. 
 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 12, 2021 12:54 ET (17:54 GMT)

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