U.S. stocks snap 2-day winning streak after Fed hikes interest rates by 50 basis points, signals peak rates might not be far away
By Isabel Wang and Christine Idzelis
Fed signaled its terminal rate could peak at 5.25% next year, up from 4.75% in September
U.S. stocks finished lower on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate as expected by 50 basis points, but signaled rates could be soon nearing a peak level.
How stocks traded
On Tuesday, the Dow ended with a gain of slightly more than 100 points, or 0.3%, after initially jumping more than 700 points early in the session. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%. and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1%.
What drove markets
U.S. stocks ended lower in choppy trade as Wall Street assessed the Federal Reserve's policy decision.
The U.S. central bank on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the highest since 2007. It was a slower rate increase than its four consecutive 0.75 point rate hikes since June.
See: Fed hikes interest rate by half percentage point -- benchmark rate seen topping out at 5.25%
Market participants also digested the central bank's "dot plot," which is the individual FOMC member's expectation of the appropriate Fed Funds rate each year, to provide markets with a broad indication as to where and when the central bank is likely to pause its current rate hike cycle.
Fed officials penciled in 5.25% as the top end for its benchmark rate throughout 2023. That's higher than their forecast of 4.75% in September. Seven Fed officials expect rates to go even higher, with two seeing rates topping out at 5.75%. One hawkish official sees rates staying at that level through 2025, according to the statement.
Chair Powell warned in late November the ultimate level of the Fed's benchmark rate would have to be higher than it was thought a few months ago.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank said the dot plot shows the bar for the central bank to ending its inflation fight is quite high, but that it could be met by year-end 2023.
The updated dot plot released Wednesday shows most policymakers think it will be appropriate to raise interest rates another three-quarters of a percent in 2023, and to have rates that high when next year ends, Adams wrote in an emailed comment.
"This is considerably higher than expectations priced into financial markets, which are positioned for the federal funds rate to come back down to 3.9% at the end of 2023 and to 2.6% at the end of 2024."
The Fed's previous 375 basis points of interest rate hikes since March, as it battled to suppress multidecade high inflation, have already left the S&P 500 down nearly 16.2% for the year through Wednesday, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
However, equity investors have become more hopeful that signs of easing inflation, including a softer-than-expected reading from the consumer-price index on Tuesday, may allow the Fed to be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy and potentially make a recession less likely.
Fed Chair Powell and other FOMC members on Wednesday indicated they still want to see concrete progress in getting inflation moving down to their 2% annual target.
"It will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path," said Powell in a post-meeting news conference. "Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services."
The Fed also estimate the unemployment rate could rise sharply from the current level of 3.7% to 4.6% in 2023, as rising interest rates weigh on the economy. Fed officials also project steady declines in inflation, starting with a drop to 3.1% in 2023, and then moving to a target of around 2% by 2025. They see cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 and another 100 in 2025.
See: Fed predicts tepid economic growth, rising unemployment in 2023
Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said investors remained jittery about the prospect of a Fed that isn't likely to pivot any time soon.
"Investors, in the holiday spirit for yesterday's CPI report, had their hopes dashed for a Santa Clause rally when Jerome Powell played Scrooge at the Fed meeting this afternoon," said Bolvin in a Wednesday note.
Stocks in focus
-- Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article.
-Isabel Wang
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 14, 2022 16:30 ET (21:30 GMT)
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