Cheesecake Factory stock rally looks full, analysts say
By Emily Bary
Two analysts downgrade Cheesecake Factory's stock this week
Can investors have their CAKE and eat it, too?
A pair of Wall Street analysts are skeptical, recently downgrading shares of Cheesecake Factory Inc.'s stock (CAKE) in the wake of a 29% run-up in the restaurant name from the start of January through Monday's close.
"While CAKE could continue to benefit from customer brand affinity and earnings upside potential exists if targets are reached, we think potential pressured industry demand, ongoing cost headwinds and limited macro visibility highlight risk to the recent move higher in shares and expectations," UBS analyst Dennis Geiger wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
The Cheesecake Factory has a number of factors working in its favor, including "uniquely strong brand perceptions, A+ locations, and solid execution," in Geiger's view. But he also worries that the company will be impacted by consumer wallet pressures, especially in the wake of a recent UBS survey.
Respondents "most commonly cited the high costs of CAKE's food and having less free spending money as factors driving decreased visits," he wrote. Additionally, Cheesecake Factory lagged behind its peers during the Great Recession.
Cheesecake Factory shares were near flat on the heels of Geiger's Wednesday downgrade to sell from neutral, but they crumbled 8% on Tuesday after Raymond James analyst Brian Vaccaro moved to market perform from outperform.
"We believe buy-side sentiment is quite negative on the stock, noting that short interest reached 19% of the float exiting 2022," Vaccaro wrote in his note to clients.
He sees the company facing a more neutral risk/reward balance currently, and shared that he was cautious on Cheesecake Factory's earnings outlook.
Shares of the company are up nearly 19% so far this year, compared with a roughly 4% rise for the S&P 500 index over the same span.
-Emily Bary
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 25, 2023 14:54 ET (19:54 GMT)
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