Apple earnings: What to expect from the iPhone maker
By Emily Bary
Apple's earnings come amid fears about the strength of spending on consumer electronics
Spending on consumer electronics has been shaky, but the industry lion is about to show how it has fared.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is due to deliver fiscal second-quarter earnings after Thursday's closing bell in a report that will show whether consumers -- and businesses -- continue to treat the company's products as essential in a world of tighter budgets. The results will follow those from Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), which a day earlier indicated weak demand for smartphones.
Another key factor coming out of the report will be how much Apple executives dole out to shareholders. The company historically updates its capital-return policies alongside its March-quarter report, and analysts expect tens of millions of dollars in additional buybacks, along with a further dividend increase.
See more:Apple is about to rain billions more on investors as cash position shrinks
Here's what to watch for in the upcoming report.
Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Apple to post fiscal second-quarter earnings per share of $1.43, down from $1.52 a year before. On Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics and others, the average estimate calls for EPS of $1.48.
Revenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $92.9 billion in revenue, down from $97.3 billion a year before, while those contributing to Estimize expect $93.8 billion.
Analysts tracked by FactSet expect iPhone 3 revenue to decline to $48.7 billion from $50.6 billion and iPad revenue to fall to $6.7 billion from $7.6 billion. They expect Mac revenue to drop sharply, to $7.8 billion from $10.4 billion. Analysts also project $8.3 billion in wearables, home and accessories revenue, down from $8.8 billion a year before. Services is the only category expected to show growth: The FactSet consensus calls for revenue there to tick up to $21 billion from $19.8 billion.
Stock movement: Apple shares have gained following four of the company's past five earnings reports, including the three most recent ones. Apple's stock has gained about 29% so far this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has inched up about 1%.
Of the 41 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple shares, 32 have buy ratings, seven have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $172.22.
What else to watch for
Since Apple typically announces new iPhones in the fall, the March quarter tends to be a quieter one from the perspective of product sales, but it will nonetheless be a barometer for the health of electronics spending.
"We believe Apple is seeing moderate headwinds in its hardware businesses as iPhones face a modest contraction in premium device demand and the iPad and Mac businesses could be weighed down by consumer and enterprise trends," Cowen & Co. analyst Krish Sankar said in a note to clients.
Read: Sinking Apple Mac sales lead the pack in worst quarterly drop ever for PC shipments
UBS analyst David Vogt highlighted third-party data showing "notably soft" iPhone sell-through in the U.S., down nearly 4% year over year for the month of March. Europe trends were soft as well, he noted, but China trends have accelerated.
Apple hasn't offered a traditional forecast since the pandemic began, but the company's forward-looking commentary could be a big driver of the stock's movement following the report.
"The eventual outcome might be simply driven by [fiscal third-quarter/calendar second-quarter] guidance, where investors might be looking for assurance and visibility into limited downside despite a tough macro, even if it comes down to assuring that revenue declines do not deteriorate further than the -5% moderation that investors are already expecting," JPMorgan's Samik Chatterjee said in a note to clients.
One positive for Apple is that the company has been seen as a relatively safe play in an uncertain environment, he said, and "we expect worsening macro sentiment and investors favoring flight-to-safety positioning could triumph headwinds on fundamentals, to the extent they do not deteriorate materially."
The other high point of the quarter will be Apple's dividend and buyback update, with Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring predicting a $90 billion increase to the share-repurchase program and a 5% dividend hike, matching what the company did last year.
-Emily Bary
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May 04, 2023 10:25 ET (14:25 GMT)
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