PayPal earnings: What to expect
By Emily Bary
The e-commerce company will report earnings after Monday's closing bell
PayPal Holdings Inc.'s Monday afternoon earnings are expected to showcase a surprisingly resilient stretch for the e-commerce sector.
Analysts thought e-commerce spending would be slow to start the year, but it has been "holding up," according to Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette, and that trend could benefit PayPal (PYPL) when it reports.
See also: PayPal seems on track to 'clear a low bar.' Is that enough to help its stock?
Other items to watch for will be any commentary on market share and any updates on the search for a successor to Chief Executive Dan Schulman, who plans to leave around the end of the year.
Here's what to expect when the numbers hit after Monday's closing bell.
What to expect
Earnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect the company to post $1.10 a share in earnings, up from 88 cents a share a year before. On Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics and others, the average projection calls for $1.14 a share in earnings.
Revenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $6.98 billion in revenue, up from $6.48 billion a year prior. Those contributing to Estimize expect $7.04 billion in revenue.
Stock movement: PayPal shares have risen after five of the company's last 10 earnings reports, including the most recent one. The stock has gained 6% so far this year, although it's off 60% since the start of 2022.
Of the 47 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover PayPal shares, 35 have buy ratings and 12 have hold ratings, with an average price target of $99.43.
What else to watch for
Investors are keenly interested in whether PayPal is losing market share, but "the answer to that question is not necessarily black and white," notes Faucette.
One important metric for investors interested in that trend will be PayPal's branded-checkout total payment volume, he noted. PayPal saw 5% growth on the metric in 2022, he said, while overall e-commerce growth, excluding Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), was 6%, "implying that [PayPal] branded share was flat to only slightly down in 2022."
But looking at that metric alone doesn't tell the full story, in his view, since PayPal's revenue growth outpaced the e-commerce sector, excluding Amazon, last year.
He'll also be looking for updates on engagement trends.
"We think PayPal needs to remain focused on expanding its wallet functionality to defend its competitive advantage in online checkout and ensure users keep engaging on the platform," Faucette wrote.
While first-quarter trends seemed strong for the e-commerce sector, Bernstein's Harshita Rawat thinks April dynamics weren't as robust, given that Visa Inc.'s (V) U.S. card-not-present growth fell to 7% in April from 11% in the first quarter. The card-not-present umbrella mainly encompasses e-commerce spending.
"It is unclear whether this is transitory (e.g., U.S. tax refund related) or indicativeof emerging consumer weakness," Rawat wrote.
PayPal also has been making a cost-cutting push in recent months, and Deutsche Bank's Bryan Keane will be looking for updates on that.
PayPal "remains in the early innings of its cost-cutting journey and while [management] believes the company has made good progress, taking out [roughly $2 billion] in costs and getting back in line with historical non-transaction related [operating expense] growth, there remain many additional levers to pull over the near and medium term," he wrote.
-Emily Bary
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May 08, 2023 13:55 ET (17:55 GMT)
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